Originally Posted by urluckyday
Does anyone take North Korea seriously anymore? It's like someone continually pulling the fire alarm, and you just stop running out of the building because it's always a false alarm. I can't imagine if there will ever be a "fire" in that sense. Would they really be that dumb? They're pretty damn stupid in general...but they know they'd be annihilated.
It isn't that simple. First, Kim Il Sung never threatened Nuclear annihilation. He didn't have the capability, and China had nukes, but no intercontinental delivery system until a disgruntled US Air Force employee gave them the Titan III blueprints. That was because both Mao and Deng were too unstable for Russia to assist them. So their 'big brother' wouldn't back their play.
KIm Jong Il however wanted the capability. and didn't care if he'd be backed or not. As I pointed out above, a wannabe movie director. You can create any end you want in a move, and I think, toward the end, he believed the world would let him have what he wanted. But while he couldn't deliver on his threats, we didn't shoot down his few missile tests.
Now we have Kim Jong Un, raised to believe his word is law in NK, and believes it should be with the world. Again, as I mentioned, all of NK's problems are caused by the US. Starvation in his own country, caused by sellling food overseas to 'prove' his nations productivity, is explained to his people by us not allowing them to buy their needs
. The UN would not be warning about sanctions if the US did not demand them.
What worries me is that no one inside either NK or China has given any indication that he's blowing smoke. Like a poker game, we're going to come to the point where he has to show his hand, and to admit he cannot might not be possible. Look at the difference:
When the US blockaded Cuba and threatened to Nuke Russia if a missile was fired, the Russians backed down after a week of posturing because they believed us. When the Shrub threatened to nuke NK if a terrorist organization deployed a nuke, CIA reported that their contacts with such organizations dropped off. Why, because we could do it.
It might come down to 'put up or shut up. The problem is; in my estimate above, we're looking at about 4 million casualties against 30+ million because the only North Koreans who survive will be the ones in their bunkers.
addenda: I forgot the real sweet piece here; Back when the World Court was formed, a bunch of nations jumped on to the bandwagon to have the US declared as War Criminals because we used the only two nuclear weapons fired in anger. After a fierce debate, the World Court decided that using such a weapon was not in anod of itself a War Crime. However in 1996, they added that 'preemptive use of a nuclear weapon is an acceptable tactic.'
Smoke that, guys.