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View Poll Results: How long will the United States last heading toward the future of human society
50 years 2 25.00%
100 years 4 50.00%
500 years 1 12.50%
1000 years 0 0%
10,000 years 0 0%
until the galaxy fissile out 1 12.50%
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Thread: How long will the United States last heading toward the future of human society
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Old 08-16-2006, 01:25 AM   #1
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Thumbs up How long will the United States last heading toward the future of human society

I ask this question because people in the U.S. think the country going to last until the sun burnout or until the galaxy fissile out.

I think the U.S. will probably last another 20-80 years before the human race start traviling the galaxy and old countries of Earth become less important as the discovery of new planets takes their places.

What opinions do anyone else have on the matter?
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Old 08-16-2006, 02:58 AM   #2
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I hope China gets their act together and puts serious effort into their space program. It might force the US to get up off our collective rear and make NASA something other than a joke in the space exploration business...

But for the question probably no more than 100 years at max. China and India are advancing quite rapidly and we simply don't have the population to stop their takeover of world trade.


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Old 08-16-2006, 03:16 AM   #3
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Is the question how long the nation of America is going to last? In that case, I vote(d) 500 years, give or take. There are people who consider the US to be doomed due to Bush's actions, but I think that'll just fade into history as a "second McCarthy era" and the nation will move on.

I don't think it'll crumble soon, or in 500 years, for that matter, but I just don't think I can see far enough into the future to determine what'll happen past that. It might actually last "until the galaxy fizzles out" for all I know.

It also depends on your definition of what "America lasting" means. Do we have to start the timer again when the country's occupied (ie. part of another nation) or separated (for example in civil war)? Or can the nation change its name and fundamental principles and even move its borders or become part of a union?

Is the USA 200 years old (timer starts at the Declaration of Independence), or younger than that (timer starting at end of Civil War, when the country was again whole)?

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Old 08-16-2006, 03:17 AM   #4
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The US will most likely remain as de facto superpower(along with allies) for another 50 to 100 years, and afterwards could remain as a considerable power potentially for centuries. I'd imagine that in response to China, the US creates a very strong bond with Canada and Mexico in North America; abroad, we'd have allies in Europe, Japan, India, and maybe the Middle East depending on how our Westernizing process turns out(not likely, unfortunately). On top of that, China right now is about to enter a large bubble burst as their massive industrialition process is resulting in overwhelming cyclical overcapacity. Moreoever, China's population will not be as large as factor as one would think; neverminding the pitiful low wages that will have to be raised one day, America simply has more farmland to support larger populations than China.



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Old 08-16-2006, 03:20 AM   #5
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On top of that, China right now is about to enter a large bubble burst as their massive industrialition process is resulting in overwhelming cyclical overcapacity.
Could you translate that to those of us who aren't fluent in Economics?

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Old 08-16-2006, 03:28 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dagobahn Eagle
Could you translate that to those of us who aren't fluent in Economics?


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclical_overcapacity

It means that the industrial capacity of China, such as its manfuacturing plants and coal refineries for instance, are being invested in to such as point wherein there is so much competition and saturation in the market that the products are cheapened to such a degree that it is not sustainable for a long period of time. Once the boom settles, the industrial capacity China has will go largely unused.

Did that help in clarification? I might be talking out of my ass for all I know, so it'd be nice if someone could double check to make sure I'm fairly correct.



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Old 08-16-2006, 03:43 AM   #7
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Dagobahn pretty much hit every point I was going to make but was too lazy to do so.

And no, don't make NASA do anything. Make GM or Microsoft do it next time. NASA is just another incompetent government organization. Didn't you hear how recently they just announced that they can't find the original video they had of the moon landing?? The people who filed it away are either dead or not employed at NASA anymore and they can't find it! >_<
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Old 08-16-2006, 03:48 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Samuel Dravis
I hope China gets their act together and puts serious effort into their space program. It might force the US to get up off our collective rear and make NASA something other than a joke in the space exploration business...

But for the question probably no more than 100 years at max. China and India are advancing quite rapidly and we simply don't have the population to stop their takeover of world trade.
You right, the missions NASA is doing now are laughable they have't taken the topic of galactic exploration serious enough for me.

From the time since the moon landing they have been showing laziness toward their purpose for existence. They seem have no intrest in galactic exploration for now or ever.

The failures they have shown since then have cause me to loose faith in their abilities.

The failures like the unfinish international space station, delayed man mission to Mars or the development new space propulsion devices(warp drive, wormholes or antimater propulsion drives).

Before now I believe NASA could do anything like builting amazing technologies like warp drive, wormholes or antimater propulsion drives.

Now I believe that the people at NASA are failures and disappointments as the rest of the so called geniuses on this planet that people expect great things to come from those supposedly special kind of humans.
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Old 08-16-2006, 03:52 AM   #9
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I like how everyone skips solar exploration and inhabitance to galatic colonisation without missing a beat. We're still far away from leaving Earth as the principal homeworld for the human race.



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Old 08-16-2006, 04:05 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrion
I like how everyone skips solar exploration and inhabitance to galatic colonisation without missing a beat. We're still far away from leaving Earth as the principal homeworld for the human race.
Well that's your opinion I still believe that the geniuses of this planet are reponsible for other worlds not being the other choices. So I am sick of tire of these geniuses geting credit for their failures.
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Old 08-16-2006, 07:12 AM   #11
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Probably 50-100 years. I hope humanity perishes before that though.

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Old 08-16-2006, 10:28 AM   #12
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I'm going to have to be a pessimist and say a hundred years. If not completely destroyed, the U.S. would surely be some sort of post-apocalyptic country a la James Cameron's Dark Angel (minus the genetically engineered super soldiers). We'd have no oil, and since we're so heavily dependant on it, we'd be royally screwed. I don't see China or India being overly effected by the lack of oil, since I beleive the majority of their populations do not own a vehicle.

If the next few Presidents actually manage to care about the future, and bring more focus and attention to alternative fuels, we might stand a chance. But as it is, oil and automobile executives only care about fattening their wallets, and not about the fact that there might not be a future to spend all their money.
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Old 08-16-2006, 11:12 AM   #13
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Its an interesting thread, though i don't knw what to vote as i'm not clear if it is "how long until the US is destroyed utterly" or "how long until the US becomes irrelevant" or "how long until the US is no longer a dominant superpower".

I'll admit I know nothing about economics, but I don't see the US remaining the most powerful nation in the world for more than about 20 years.

Whatever minor bubbles they have along the way, I'd see china overtaking it within that time. In theory India should too.. though they never seem to live up to their potential. If russia ever gets its government and ecconomics sorted then it would have the potential to be pretty powerful too.

Even mexico, south america and africa have a lot of potential if they ever get out of their cycles of disasters and debt for long enough.

The interesting thing will be what happens to the world economy now that a lot of 3rd world debt has been written off, fair trade is an issue, and if these countries are able to start developing strong economies. Currently the economic dominance of the West (wih the USA at the top of the pile) is built almost entirely on cheap goods and labour from poor countries.

With the advent of TV and the internet those people are looking enviously at the lifestyles of us in the west. If more of the profits for good and services make their way into the economies of those countries, and they aren't crippled by debt repayments, then they are going to rapidly rise in stature. ANd with that their expectations will rise, and the wages they pay their staff will rise, and the price of all our goods will rise.

It will be interesting to see if we can maintain a world of $50 shoes and $300 laptops when we ahve to pay a lot more to people in wages. I don't think we can.

So what happens? Global crash? Maybe. Rich/Poor splits become more internal than international? (eg: poor people in midwest living in 3rd world conditions, being paid peanuts, like their poor coleagues in africa.. while the rich in both countries get richer)Or maybe even the old rich (europe, us) become the new poor, providing labor for the new economic leading countries.

Be interesting to see if in 50 or 100 years time Mexico is trying to stop illegal US immigrants from crossing it's borders won't it?

As for post appocalyptic settings, i think that serenity might have got a lot of it right. Not the cowboy stuff, but the weird mix of western and oriental influences. Be interesting to see if we are all still posting on LF in 40 years time, but on Chinasoft operating systems and IndiaLabs laptops.



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Old 08-16-2006, 02:57 PM   #14
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It'll crumble after a few hundred years unless we manage to give a damn who runs this country and make major reforms to our current form of government (i.e. dissolve the Democratic and Republican parties in order to allow the nation a greater selection of cantidates and disallow "political contributions"). I do think however, that because of the enormous financial strength of the U.S., this country could survive for quite some if its people could get their **** together.



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Old 08-16-2006, 02:59 PM   #15
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Its an interesting thread, though i don't knw what to vote as i'm not clear if it is "how long until the US is destroyed utterly" or "how long until the US becomes irrelevant" or "how long until the US is no longer a dominant superpower".
Exactly.

On-topic:
Well, we are screwing the planet big-time. It's been proven beyond all doubt that we humans cause global warming with our Co2-emissions, and that the next generations will have to suffer because of it (hasn't it also been proven that the global warming is what causes the extreme weather). Not to mention over-fishing, pollution, rain forests chopped down, what-have-you.

It'd be nice if US politicians in power did more to stop it, instead of increasing Co2 emission-ceilings, going to war for oil, and failing to restrict automobile traffic (which'd help tremendously).

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Old 08-16-2006, 03:35 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dagobahn Eagle
Exactly.

On-topic:
Well, we are screwing the planet big-time. It's been proven beyond all doubt that we humans cause global warming with our Co2-emissions, and that the next generations will have to suffer because of it (hasn't it also been proven that the global warming is what causes the extreme weather). Not to mention over-fishing, pollution, rain forests chopped down, what-have-you.

It'd be nice if US politicians in power did more to stop it, instead of increasing Co2 emission-ceilings, going to war for oil, and failing to restrict automobile traffic (which'd help tremendously).
They won't be going to the war for oil for long that crap is runing out if people don't want to be it or not I don't give a damn.

There is however a another possible source for natural gas but we will have to get off our lazy asses and travel 10.15 AU to find (AU=92,955,825.4792014 miles) it, which I am talking about Saturn's moon Titan.

Titan is mostly compose of methane (which is natural gas fuel) gas in a frozen state.

So you can say the next war will be a solar system war for that untouch resource or other resources spread out through the solar system .

That is another thing that baffle me about oil companies and their igorance, there are contunless untouch resources out there in the rest of the solar system.

Why are'nt they hell-bent on trying to exploit those resources by investing strongly in space exploration; NASA are'nt doing s**t with their abilities.

They are a disgrace but that's another topic of discussion.
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Old 08-16-2006, 03:53 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dagobahn Eagle
and failing to restrict automobile traffic (which'd help tremendously).


You want politicians dictating how much automobile traffic there can be? Sounds a bit authoritarian! When oil starts getting more expensive than it already is, the free market will eventually step in to solve such a crisis through clean and renewable energy sources.

If you're hoping that the government can solve such a problem... don't count on it. The government is good at wasting billions of dollars on projects that go no where... "America is addicted to oil" is a good example.
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Old 08-16-2006, 03:59 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by windu6
There is however a another possible source for natural gas but we will have to get off our lazy asses and travel 10.15 AU to find (AU=92,955,825.4792014 miles) it, which I am talking about Saturn's moon Titan.

Titan is mostly compose of methane (which is natural gas fuel) gas in a frozen state.

So you can say the next war will be a solar system war for that untouch resource or other resources spread out through the solar system.
Seeing as how it costs a lot of money and a considerable amount of fuel to launch a small space shuttle into orbit, I don't forsee mining any other planet for resources anytime soon. Plus, it takes considerable time to reach other planets, especially Saturn.

Also, there will never be a "solar system war" as long as we're all on one planet, and fighting for an unreachable resource is pointless.
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Old 08-16-2006, 04:00 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by StarWarsPhreak
Seeing as how it costs a lot of money and a considerable amount of fuel to launch a small space shuttle into orbit, I don't forsee mining any other planet for resources anytime soon. Plus, it takes considerable time to reach other planets, especially Saturn.

Also, there will never be a "solar system war" as long as we're all on one planet, and fighting for an unreachable resource is pointless.
I understand what you are saying, but if we don't start exploring for other resources in the solar system very soon the the next war we will be figthing is over air.

As atmosphere deteriorate from the poisonous current energy resource controlled by idiot oil companies.

Last edited by windu6; 08-16-2006 at 04:26 PM.
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Old 08-16-2006, 04:15 PM   #20
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windu6, stick to only posting constructive responses in the Senate. What you just posted did not contribute. And there is an edit button. There is no need to double post.


Quote:
Originally Posted by TK-8252


You want politicians dictating how much automobile traffic there can be? Sounds a bit authoritarian! When oil starts getting more expensive than it already is, the free market will eventually step in to solve such a crisis through clean and renewable energy sources.

If you're hoping that the government can solve such a problem... don't count on it. The government is good at wasting billions of dollars on projects that go no where... "America is addicted to oil" is a good example.
They already dictate how much pollution autombiles can produce, but yeah, the government will never do anything til the last minute. Unless we get some new blood in the government and get rid of the old generation running things into the ground.

Here's to hoping someone can get this to work on a larger scale.
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Old 08-16-2006, 04:26 PM   #21
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You want politicians dictating how much automobile traffic there can be? Sounds a bit authoritarian!
Yup, but I think that's a necessary evil. And it's the government's roads, after all.

There are already programs that temporarily allow only cars with license plates ending with even numbers to drive on this day and only odd numbers on that day, for example. We need more of those. And we need more and cheaper collective transport (a bus ticket in Houston to anywhere in the city was only one dollar (good show)) and more support for pedestrians (sadly lacking in Houston).

Quote:
You still did'nt answer my question. Where does that leave you?
I suppose it leaves me as a realist. In the grander picture, we're just a parasite sending the planet and ourselves straight to the Hot Place.

Science Illustrated (a Scandinavian popular-scicence magazine) arrived in my mail-box today, and this particular issue focused on us humans. Among other things, it ran an article on the five fatal mistakes of fallen civilizations of old. According to Collapse: How civilizations choose to fall or succeed, by Jared Diamond, lists these factors as fatal to civilizations:
  • Environmental destruction.
  • Climate changes.
  • Hostility towards neighbours.
  • Failing interaction.
  • Poor ability to adapt.
The problem is that today it's not just one or two civilizations making these mistakes, but the entire world. So... Yes, we might be in deep trouble.

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Old 08-16-2006, 05:30 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dagobahn Eagle
There are already programs that temporarily allow only cars with license plates ending with even numbers to drive on this day and only odd numbers on that day, for example. We need more of those.
I shudder to think of such a society.
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Old 08-16-2006, 05:39 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dagobahn Eagle
I suppose it leaves me as a realist. In the grander picture, we're just a parasite sending the planet and ourselves straight to the Hot Place.

Science Illustrated (a Scandinavian popular-scicence magazine) arrived in my mail-box today, and this particular issue focused on us humans. Among other things, it ran an article on the five fatal mistakes of fallen civilizations of old. According to Collapse: How civilizations choose to fall or succeed, by Jared Diamond, lists these factors as fatal to civilizations:
  • Environmental destruction.
  • Climate changes.
  • Hostility towards neighbours.
  • Failing interaction.
  • Poor ability to adapt.
The problem is that today it's not just one or two civilizations making these mistakes, but the entire world. So... Yes, we might be in deep trouble.

What about saving this planet? Did you ever think of that?
When are you people is going to get it through your thick heads and stop living in lah lah land by believing we won't ever colonize other planets in the galaxy.

Yes I think about saving this planet but it's a whole galaxy still left to explore.

I am not like the rest of yall, I want to discover greater and better things out there in the universe.

When the United States and other countries become less important because the discovery of new worlds by using telescopes of by finding
a way to get to those planets in a reasonable amount of time.

I want to be there to experiance those amazing wonders.

Last edited by windu6; 08-16-2006 at 05:53 PM.
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Old 08-16-2006, 05:46 PM   #24
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I don't think that colonization is even possible. Earth is the only planet that supports human life; all the other planets are either too hot, too cold, too much gravity, or too little gravity. This IS the only planet we have... but we want to enjoy it too. The answer isn't to put in place authoritarian measures that restrict our movement... it's to do what Brazil did... make all the cars run on rice or corn. But things are too good for us now, so we don't see any reason to do such a thing. Eventually we WILL have to though because it's what the market demands. When oil gets too expensive for the average citizen, oil companies will have no choice but to invest in other sources of energy.
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Old 08-16-2006, 05:48 PM   #25
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I shudder to think of such a society.
I keep forgetting you're right-wing, do you know that? Comments like that one always get the drop on me!

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When are you people is going to get it through your thick heads and stop living in lah lah land by believing we won't ever colonize other planets in the galaxy.
I know we'll either eventually abandon ship or go down with it (as a matter of fact, the latest issue of Science Illustrated covered that, too). But it won't happen this century, or for that matter the next one, if you ask me.

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Old 08-16-2006, 07:04 PM   #26
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I'm kinda scared of what would happen if we were to colonize another planet and encounter another civilization and alien race.
We humans fear what we can't understand and that's never a good thing. We'd probably try to spread religion and try to exploit the other planet somehow like a parasite.
And let's face it we don't care about our planet, we only care about ourselves. Alot of people ask the question how will our planet survive through constant killing of it, the question is not if our planet will, it's about humans surviving or not. Earth will survive nuclear holocaust, there will always be a few microbes alive and from what i've heard cockroaches would also survive, and evolution would start again.

And yes windu6 I'm very interested in traveling the galaxy, seeing new planets and all of that. But i'm realistic, i'll never be able to do that. Perhaps my grandchildren? I dunno. Maybe space vacations to the moon or something, but nothing quite as big as terraforming or a Earth 2

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Old 08-17-2006, 01:44 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by Pho3nix
I'm kinda scared of what would happen if we were to colonize another planet and encounter another civilization and alien race.
We humans fear what we can't understand and that's never a good thing. We'd probably try to spread religion and try to exploit the other planet somehow like a parasite.
And let's face it we don't care about our planet, we only care about ourselves. Alot of people ask the question how will our planet survive through constant killing of it, the question is not if our planet will, it's about humans surviving or not. Earth will survive nuclear holocaust, there will always be a few microbes alive and from what i've heard cockroaches would also survive, and evolution would start again.

And yes windu6 I'm very interested in traveling the galaxy, seeing new planets and all of that. But i'm realistic, i'll never be able to do that. Perhaps my grandchildren? I dunno. Maybe space vacations to the moon or something, but nothing quite as big as terraforming or a Earth 2
You really don't trust humans? Also I was being realistic to about what I said earlier.

Humans are flawed, but don't believe that we are the only ones in the galaxy who are.

As the saying goes, "No one is perfect!" I believe aliens no matter how advance they are then us are'nt perfect either.
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Old 08-17-2006, 05:33 AM   #28
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(In response to the original question)

What's the longest a nation-state on Earth has ever existed? I'm sure it will be less than that.

The acceleration of global warming and the inevitable total collapse of the petrocarbon economy will hasten it considerably.

I foresee 100 years at the most.

This is not to say that what replaces America and the American system of government will be worse, however. I do like to stay cautiously optimistic about such things and think that our understanding about massive group dynamics is evolving as well, and that a new system of government that perhaps fits the planet even better will arrive.

I can't believe that we as a species have reached governmental perfection with a free-market representational democracy. And the current system of competing nation-states with different governmental/ economic/ religious systems is unsustainable in the long run for the survival of the human race as a whole.


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Old 09-19-2006, 04:59 AM   #29
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(In response to the original question)

What's the longest a nation-state on Earth has ever existed? I'm sure it will be less than that.

The acceleration of global warming and the inevitable total collapse of the petrocarbon economy will hasten it considerably.

I foresee 100 years at the most.

This is not to say that what replaces America and the American system of government will be worse, however. I do like to stay cautiously optimistic about such things and think that our understanding about massive group dynamics is evolving as well, and that a new system of government that perhaps fits the planet even better will arrive.

I can't believe that we as a species have reached governmental perfection with a free-market representational democracy. And the current system of competing nation-states with different governmental/ economic/ religious systems is unsustainable in the long run for the survival of the human race as a whole.
Well with recent evidence about the North Atlantic current circulation dynamics becoming motionless because of glacier melting have, force me to retract my previous estimate of the U.S. future stay.

I believe that the US and rest of North America don't have that much time left.

If the present climate model is accurate 10 to 20 years is left on the climate stability clock, climatologists say.

Warm stable climate disappear for 100 or 1000 yrs and left with the planet Hoth weather conditions in one of those time spans.

If this happen people in the US and Canada will be residents of Hoth.

Last edited by windu6; 09-30-2006 at 08:00 PM.
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Old 09-19-2006, 06:00 AM   #30
Ray Jones
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Before mankind is going to "leave" this planet, we will have to overcome a few things first. For instance: nationalities. No country has enough resources to run projects bigger than just riding earth's orbit or shooting 3 men to the moon with a 30% chance for success. If we're going to settle down in space then it will be as humans from earth, not as US citizens, Mexicans, Germans, South Africans etc.

Traveling the galaxy will not happen before we haven't visited every single planet or object large enough to land on within the solar system, at least. The ability for secure and reliable travel in space near earth is essential for bigger trips to outer space.

But by now we're not even able to fly to the moon anymore, because we have no rocket/space ship available which would be powerful enough to get us there, and as far as I know, no landing craft too. Not that we couldn't have those by technology means, but there is just none capable of this standing around or in the process of being build. Way to go for traveling galaxies.

Sure is, if mankind won't gain ability to leave this planet permanently, then the days of human life are numbered already, who cares if it'll be in 1000 or 50000 years?



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Old 09-21-2006, 07:49 AM   #31
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I agree with Ray Jones all the way. I will take a long time and alot of money to even think of something like that. America has been around for a good amount of time and is one of the top rated countries power etc wise. So I dont see america goin anywhere unless some people wanna end all life in this world.


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Old 09-21-2006, 01:00 PM   #32
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Quote:
America has been around for a good amount of time
No, it's been around for no time at all compared to the nations people that have existed for millenia. It's a global infant.

()

But yes, I think it's going last for at least two hundred more years.

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Old 10-17-2006, 09:02 PM   #33
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I agree that the US will probably remain around for several more centuries, even if in a modified form from what we know now. America doesn't lack the resources, or at least access to them, but rather the political willpower to maintain it's preeminence in the world. If political differences could be put aside, Americans could well reach and begin the colonization of Mars before 2020, for example. Problem is, fractious debate and competing short termed/sighted policies get in the way. There's also the hurdle of getting past the "we must fix EVERYTHING on earth before going on into space" mentality that many people have. If America cleaned up it's education system and applied less fuzzy standards to it's students and teachers, it could retain it's position as being at the forefront of cutting edge changes in technology and it's multitude of applications for many years to come. But equally important might be corraling international business, which has it's own agendas. If the megacorps can basically deindustrialize a country by shopping their biz elsewhere, that puts any country, USA included, at a severe disadvantage.

While shared costs are nice and fine, a revitalized US would have little need of the rest of the world to expand out into space. No doubt there would be bilateral or even multilateral agreements for cooperation, but the world wouldn't necessarily require a global government to see human expansion into space. Besides, it's very likely what would happen is a combination private business-government series of arrangements.
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