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Old 09-30-2006, 07:49 PM   #1
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Global Warming

In response to this post in the Dubya in 50 years-thread:
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[...]As for global warming, I'm really not taking it seriously.
Big mistake.

Quote:
So there's a hole in the ozone layer. So what?

One scientist I've read says that it's been expanding and contracting on its own for as long as anyone could observe it. Another might say it's growing and it's our fault. Who's to say which scientist is right?
I don't know if global warming and the holes in the ozone layer have much to do with one another, to be honest. Last time I checked, it was the massive amount of Co2 emissions.

Quote:
In any case, what does it matter? So maybe it gets really cold. So maybe we have to dress a hell of a lot warmer to survive. So what?
Yeah, indeed, who cares?

Maybe the victims of extreme weather caused by global warming?
The hundreds of thousands killed by the Sri Lankan tsunami?
The people who lost their homes when New Orleans was flooded?
The 3000 people who died in the last heat wave in France?

Granted, not all of these catastrophes are necessarily caused by global warming. But it is a fact that global warming is contributing to an increased number of disasters worldwide.

Weather and temperatures are being turned upside-down.

Rapid global warming is real. That it's caused by humans is a fact proven beyond all doubt, and that it's a threat to humanity is a second fact. It needs to be dealt with.

The IPCC on Global Warming.

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Old 09-30-2006, 08:00 PM   #2
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Global warming is happening. But to say that a human cause (anthropogenic) is "proven beyond all doubt" simply isn't true.

There is evidence that climate change is exhibiting an overall warming trend. There is ample evidence that this trend will have serious problems for humanity as well as other animals and plants on the planet.

The evidence for anthropogenic causes may simply be coincidental. There is a good correlation between CO2 emissions and overall warming, but there is also evidence that a warming climate as we continue to come out of the last 'ice age' is normal.

The crowd that says global warming is the fault of man may be jumping the gun; but the crowd that denies it is occurring is simply not looking at the evidence. Reality lies somewhere in the middle, with man as a very likely contributor to a trend that should be expected anyway.


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Old 09-30-2006, 08:19 PM   #3
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(...) to say that a human cause (anthropogenic) is "proven beyond all doubt" simply isn't true.
Are you sure about that?

I base what I'm saying on this article, which you admittedly cannot read even with a translator, as it's for subscribers only. It says it's 100% certain that humans are behind global warming. I'll try to get my subscriber's ID number so I can get its sources.

I'm not saying it can't be wrong, I'm just explaining where I got my statement from.

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Reality lies somewhere in the middle, with man as a very likely contributor to a trend that should be expected anyway.
But wouldn't it be better if it didn't happen as fast as it does now?

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Old 09-30-2006, 08:36 PM   #4
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I base my opinions on observation of available evidence. I'm open to revising my opinions if you have the evidence that supports the anthropogenic assertion "beyond all doubt," I'd like to see it. Unfortunately, I'll need it in English, Spanish or German. My Norwegian is weak. The fact is, however, that we've no idea if the anthropogenic contributions (assuming they actually exist) are significant enough that by changing our habits we can effect change in the climate change rate. It may be that human CO2 emissions are the equivalent of tossing a lit match in a bonfire. Does it really burn brighter?


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Old 09-30-2006, 10:06 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SkinWalker
Global warming is happening. But to say that a human cause (anthropogenic) is "proven beyond all doubt" simply isn't true.

There is evidence that climate change is exhibiting an overall warming trend. There is ample evidence that this trend will have serious problems for humanity as well as other animals and plants on the planet.

The evidence for anthropogenic causes may simply be coincidental. There is a good correlation between CO2 emissions and overall warming, but there is also evidence that a warming climate as we continue to come out of the last 'ice age' is normal.

The crowd that says global warming is the fault of man may be jumping the gun; but the crowd that denies it is occurring is simply not looking at the evidence. Reality lies somewhere in the middle, with man as a very likely contributor to a trend that should be expected anyway.
It seem to me, SkinWalker that you are depending on the use of Occum's razor.
Your uncertainty is inferring that you are going for the most simple explanation concerning Global Warming.
You observe people reactions to the topic in the world, they seem to allow their fears and emotions controlling their reasonsing, that is what your reactions has inferred to me.

The physics of Global Warming is highly complex and difficult to calculate.
The use of the mathematics branch of partial differential equations, who calculations lead close to bordering on the nonlinear differential equations of Chaos Theory, for the accurate depiction of the physics of Earth's atomosphere.

Of course there will be some doubt and uncertainty brought into the argument.

But there is so much damning evidence, that people who have doubt or are uncertain, just will not be convince.
So, I am bordering close to giving up on that task.

Last edited by windu6; 10-03-2006 at 01:35 AM.
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Old 09-30-2006, 10:27 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Dagobahn Eagle
I don't know if global warming and the holes in the ozone layer have much to do with one another, to be honest. Last time I checked, it was the massive amount of Co2 emissions.
...Which made the massive holes in the ozone layer, due to the pressure caused by the greenhouse effect. You skipped a step.

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Old 09-30-2006, 10:40 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by Davin Qe-Kora
...Which made the massive holes in the ozone layer, due to the pressure caused by the greenhouse effect. You skipped a step.
Ozone depletion possibly is cause by chlorine and bromine that are present in Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC).

Ozone depletion link
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Old 10-01-2006, 02:49 AM   #8
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Windu6 is correct. CO2 has nothing to do with ozone depletion. Global warming and the so-called ozone hole are two different concepts with two different (ostensibly) causes.


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Old 10-01-2006, 05:54 AM   #9
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General Statement to Whoever Doesn't Think Global Warming Is A Problem:

If you, Bush, oil companies and whoever else are right about this, then nothing happens and we can all go on driving our SUVs and guzzling crude oil with our breakfast burritos. If you're wrong however, the human species might be royally up sh!t creek and facing extinction within a century or two.

Is this a chance you want to take?


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Old 10-01-2006, 08:26 AM   #10
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Pascal's wager turned green.
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I base my opinions on observation of available evidence. I'm open to revising my opinions if you have the evidence that supports the anthropogenic assertion "beyond all doubt," I'd like to see it.
Still lookin'.

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Old 10-03-2006, 01:47 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mace MacLeod
General Statement to Whoever Doesn't Think Global Warming Is A Problem:

If you, Bush, oil companies and whoever else are right about this, then nothing happens and we can all go on driving our SUVs and guzzling crude oil with our breakfast burritos. If you're wrong however, the human species might be royally up sh!t creek and facing extinction within a century or two.

Is this a chance you want to take?

Excuse my ignorance. I know next to nothing about science or anything related to it, so my carelessness has an excuse. Besides, how much difference is it gonna make if I keep up in my ignorance... I'm just a simple college student. Nobody's gonna listen to me anyway.


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Old 10-03-2006, 07:49 PM   #12
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Besides, how much difference is it gonna make if I keep up in my ignorance... I'm just a simple college student. Nobody's gonna listen to me anyway.
Read "Free the Children".

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Old 10-08-2006, 12:19 AM   #13
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Has anyone seen "An inconvenient truth" yet? It's looking to be really good. Tough luck the neo-cons will ignore it.

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Old 10-08-2006, 12:57 AM   #14
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I saw it and found Gore's presentation compelling and accurate. I didn't see anything in the science he presented that could be construed as inaccurate.

I wrote a piece on my blog (which you visit frequently without posting ) about an email exchange I had with a right-wing columnist regarding that film: Pseudo-skepticism and Pseudo-Journalism about Global Warming


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Old 10-08-2006, 01:12 AM   #15
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Read it. Without posting.

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Old 10-08-2006, 01:34 AM   #16
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Still, it gladdens my heart to see that little Norwegian flag whenever I check my stats


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Old 11-07-2006, 06:23 AM   #17
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Climate chaos? Don't believe it
By Christopher Monckton, Sunday Telegraph
Last Updated: 12:14am GMT 05/11/2006

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...it/nwarm05.xml

The Stern report last week predicted dire economic and social effects of unchecked global warming. In what many will see as a highly controversial polemic, Christopher Monckton disputes the 'facts' of this impending apocalypse and accuses the UN and its scientists of distorting the truth


Biblical droughts, floods, plagues and extinctions?


Last week, Gordon Brown and his chief economist both said global warming was the worst "market failure" ever. That loaded soundbite suggests that the "climate-change" scare is less about saving the planet than, in Jacques Chirac's chilling phrase, "creating world government". This week and next, I'll reveal how politicians, scientists and bureaucrats contrived a threat of Biblical floods, droughts, plagues, and extinctions worthier of St John the Divine than of science.

Edit: Please click the link above for the entire article. The article is interesting in its counter-argument to the global warming consensus, but, unfortunately, posting in its entirety here constitutes a violation of Fair Use and Copyright. I encourage others to quote portions of the article in this thread for critique, however.

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Old 11-07-2006, 07:02 AM   #18
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It's a good idea to just link to an article instead of posting the whole thing.

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Last week, Gordon Brown and his chief economist both said global warming was the worst "market failure" ever. That loaded soundbite suggests that the "climate-change" scare is less about saving the planet than, in Jacques Chirac's chilling phrase, "creating world government".
And that's how 90% of the people who have no arguments debate: By poisoning the well or by means of ad hominem remarks. "He's got this and that bad reason to say what he says, so don't listen to him!".

Global warming is a very real fact, and a very real threat. It is getting warmer, the heat is causing more and more natural disasters, and it is foolish and dangerous to subscribe to Creationist-style pseudo-science to hide the facts.

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Old 11-07-2006, 07:29 AM   #19
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Perhaps a link may have been sufficient, but then I've tried to access links in threads that didn't work, so I provided both.

Don't know how much of the article you actually read, but it was a lot more than a few ad hominem zingers. Sounds to me like you just fell prey to making your own ad hominem attack. However, not really sure if that last comment is directed at me or just those kind of people in general, since I've not taken a stand proclaiming that God made the earth in 7 days and everything is just peachy keen, hunky dory. The problem with the whole global warming argument is that it's proponents are being dishonest about what is really going on in the world. The attempts at global treaties have been more about global redistribution of wealth than actually curbing any harmful emissions. If you're honest, you'd have to admit that the proponents of global warming have ad homenized the issue by vocally dismissing their critics as corporate hacks or flakes. Why, then, should anyone just accept that these people don't have hidden agendas of their own?
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Old 11-07-2006, 03:16 PM   #20
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Well, for me personally, I'd much rather err on the side of caution.

Say the Climate Chaos folks are totally wrong,.. but we all act to try to reduce and remove potential sources of alleged "greenhouse emissions" starting today. Where will we be in 50 or 100 years? Well, I don't know; but the air will be a bit cleaner anyway...

If the Climate Change folks are even partially correct on the other hand, and we choose to attempt to do nothing about it, where exactly will we be in that same 50 to 100 year timeframe?

Well, I don't know about you, but I'll most likely be a lot further inland than I am at the moment,.. as the property I currently own is predicted to be at least 20 feet under water by then.

If Global Warming doesn't really exist, and we still go through steps to clean up the environment, have we done any real harm?

Seems to me that reducing pollution should be a worthy enough goal even without the threat of looming disaster.

If there are any detrimental socio-political side-effects to attempting to take that type of action as you seem to imply, well, then I guess we'll just have to deal with them on a case-by-case basis if and when they come along.


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Old 11-07-2006, 11:05 PM   #21
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You're a fool to not take climate change seriously. Is it caused by humans? I'm not sure, but it's worth chasing up just so we can act and do something about it, rather than find someone to lay the blame on.
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Old 11-08-2006, 12:32 PM   #22
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Well, Nance, for the record, I didn't say there was no climate change at any level. I merely contended that the global warming proponents are playing with the data for what may be political motivations.

Frankly, computer models are suspect b/c they are limited by the data and front loaded assumptions of the people constructing those models. With all our technology, we still can't accurately predict the weather a week from now. Why should anyone accept that we know what WILL happen in 10-20 years.

Also, I'm not saying we should do nothing to improve the environment, an ounce of prevention and all that. Merely that we should know more about what's really going on so that we can plan and act accordingly.
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Old 11-08-2006, 02:11 PM   #23
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I didn't say you weren't, but governments have disregarded the information they were given. Of course the government is ignorant, self serving and piss on you except if you were fire, but it's still very wrong.
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Old 12-12-2006, 07:54 PM   #24
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This series of interviews I found really interesting.

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Old 12-12-2006, 08:21 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dagobahn Eagle
But wouldn't it be better if it didn't happen as fast as it does now?
You could argue that CO2 emissions are a result of our great demand for energy; the more energy we have, the greater our overall productivity. With the extra productivity we can focus more on technological research, which would facilitate the development of a solution(s) to the global warming issue. So while we would exaggerate global warming within the next hundred years, we would still ultimately benefit in the long run.



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Old 12-12-2006, 10:00 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by Nancy Allen``
I didn't say you weren't, but governments have disregarded the information they were given. Of course the government is ignorant, self serving and piss on you except if you were fire, but it's still very wrong.
They will still piss on you even if you were on fire, Nancy.
The government can't be trusted, with 100% assurance.
When we are freezing our asses off when most of the Northern Hemisphere climate become similar like the last Ice Age.
That if this happen this climate will probably last for centuries.
Because of the shut down of the Ocean Conveyor, because of decrease salinity in sea water cause by global warming effects of melting of glacial ice of the Arctic and Antarctic, that adds fresh water(low salinity) to the world's oceans.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ocean and Climate Change Institute
The Great Ocean Conveyor is propelled by the sinking of cold, salty (and therefore denser) waters in the North Atlantic Ocean. That creates a void that pulls warm, salty Gulf Stream waters northward. The Gulf Stream gives up its heat to the atmosphere above the North Atlantic Ocean, and prevailing winds carry the heat eastward to warm Europe.
As that water moves north, it gives up heat and some moisture to the atmosphere, making climates in Europe much warmer and moister than one would expect for a landmass at such high latitude.

The process leaves behind cool, salty water that is denser than surface waters. In the seas that ring the northern Atlantic—the Labrador, Irminger, and Greenland seas—this dense water sinks to the depths and flows southward. These conduits of cold, deep waters converge into the Deep Western Boundary Current, which flows adjacent to and sometimes beneath the Gulf Stream. This sinking and southward flow draws more warm water north to replace it, and contributes to a worldwide circulation pattern known as the Global Thermohaline Circulation, or the "Great Ocean Conveyor."

The freshening tendency makes the surface water more buoyant, thus opposing the cooling tendency. If the freshening is sufficiently large, the surface waters may not be dense enough to sink to great depths in the ocean, thus inhibiting the action of the ocean conveyor and upsetting one important part of the earth’s heating system.

The ocean conveyor need not stop entirely when the NADW(North Atlantic Deep Water) formation is curtailed. It can continue at shallower depths in the N. Atlantic and persist in the Southern Ocean where Antarctic Bottom Water formation continues or is even accelerated. Yet a disruption of the northern limb of the overturning circulation will affect the heat balance of the northern hemisphere and could affect both the oceanic and atmospheric climate. Model calculations indicate the potential for cooling of 3 to 5 degree Celsius in the ocean and atmosphere should a total disruption occur. This is a third to a half the temperature change experienced during major ice ages.

These changes are twice as large as those experienced in the worst winters of the past century in the eastern US, and are likely to persist for decades to centuries after a climate transition occurs. They are of a magnitude comparable to the Little Ice Age, which had profound effects on human settlements in Europe and North America during the 16th through 18th centuries. Their geographic extent is in doubt; it might be limited to regions bounding the N. Atlantic Ocean. High latitude temperature changes in the ocean are much less capable of affecting the global atmosphere than low latitude ones, such as those produced by El Niño.
Then they will regard the physics and chemistry of global warming as facts.
But we will be probably living in snow iglus or ice caves by then, in about one or two decades.
Unless, we are lucky.

A link to Abrupt Climate Change

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Old 12-12-2006, 10:38 PM   #27
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[...] The more energy we have, the greater our overall productivity. With the extra productivity we can focus more on technological research, which would facilitate the development of a solution(s) to the global warming issue.
Yes, but the more global warming, the more extreme weather and rising waters, which translate into more deaths, more people being made homeless, and more people turned into refugees. It's a very, very high price to pay.

Also keep in mind that much of the Co2-emissions is unnecessary. There are people driving cars alone to work and school when they could've taken the bus or at the very least taken a passenger or two. There are people, me included, taking unnecessarily long showers. There are people who leave their TV on standby at night when it'd save hundreds of gigatonnes if "everyone" just shut it off. I could go on and on. Most of us simply don't gain anything monetarily for wasting energy this way. The oil business might, and the power plants might, but the Average Joe certainly does not.

Not to mention that the long lines caused by the individuals who drive cars alone to and from work and school are essentially wastes of time. Nobody gets much done while they are stuck in lines during rush hour, whereas if they took the bus, subway, or other collective transportation alternative, not to mention if they simply walked or rode a bike, you'd save yourself and whoever expected you time.

Of course, there are people who just cannot for the life of them be arsed into parking their cars and get on buses, and I understand them. I think the level of certain peoples' persistence is best illustrated by this friend of mine whose mom and house were lost in a mud-slide during exceptionally heavy rains last September. One year after, her family of three owns as many cars. She drives to and from school (30 min' drive) every day even though she could perfectly well have taken the bus. In short - if a natural disaster causing you to lose a parent doesn't make you learn, then... what's it going to take?

windu6: No offense, but Al Gore explains the "Conveyor" better than you do. I'll post a link when YouTube allows searching again.

Related: Charlie Rose with Al Gore.


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Old 12-12-2006, 11:21 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dagobahn Eagle
Yes, but the more global warming, the more extreme weather and rising waters, which translate into more deaths, more people being made homeless, and more people turned into refugees. It's a very, very high price to pay.
The hard part is analyzing the data and determining whether the cost of increased human pollution would offset the advances we would make. For instance, determining how much worse off the weather is than it was two hundred years ago.

Quote:
Also keep in mind that much of the Co2-emissions is unnecessary. There are people driving cars alone to work and school when they could've taken the bus or at the very least taken a passenger or two. There are people, me included, taking unnecessarily long showers. There are people who leave their TV on standby at night when it'd save hundreds of gigatonnes if "everyone" just shut it off. I could go on and on. Most of us simply don't gain anything monetarily for wasting energy this way. The oil business might, and the power plants might, but the Average Joe certainly does not.
That's something different altogether, as you would have to deal with breaking the notion ingrained in society that your own contributions won't matter in the big picture. The decision to turn off or leave on my television means **** to the environment, but it takes a couple million of such decisions in order to make a difference. I concur, though, that the effort to help alleviate pollution problems begins at home.

Quote:
Not to mention that the long lines caused by the individuals who drive cars alone to and from work and school are essentially wastes of time. Nobody gets much done while they are stuck in lines during rush hour, whereas if they took the bus, subway, or other collective transportation alternative, not to mention if they simply walked or rode a bike, you'd save yourself and whoever expected you time.
I'm not sure how it is in Norway, but here in America self-transportation is nearly a necessity; most people work around a good 10-25 miles from home if they live in suburbs, a very large portion of the population. You'd only have to look at how many highways we have in the country(particularly, Southern California) to see how necessary cars are; it's not a matter of convenience for most.

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Of course, there are people who just cannot for the life of them be arsed into parking their cars and get on buses, and I understand them. I think the level of certain peoples' persistence is best illustrated by this friend of mine whose mom and house were lost in a mud-slide during exceptionally heavy rains last September. One year after, her family of three owns as many cars. She drives to and from school (30 min' drive) every day even though she could perfectly well have taken the bus. In short - if a natural disaster causing you to lose a parent doesn't make you learn, then... what's it going to take?
I'm not sure if I understand your point here. Are you describing how your friend drives a car regularly, contributing to the pollution problem, and remarking on how it was that sort of activity which had worsened the storm that had killed her mother? I would remind you, then, that rainstorms and mudslides have been happening in terrible force since long before we discovered combustion.



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Old 12-13-2006, 12:35 AM   #29
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The hard part is analyzing the data and determining whether the cost of increased human pollution would offset the advances we would make. For instance, determining how much worse off the weather is than it was two hundred years ago.
And the answer is that it's far, far worse. It doesn't take more than looking out your window.

We're not talking minor changes here. We're talking enormous changes. There's no way we'll be better off by polluting more and more, as we are now.

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That's something different altogether, as you would have to deal with breaking the notion ingrained in society that your own contributions won't matter in the big picture. The decision to turn off or leave on my television means **** to the environment, but it takes a couple million of such decisions in order to make a difference. I concur, though, that the effort to help alleviate pollution problems begins at home.
Definetly, and it'd make a huge difference.

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I'm not sure how it is in Norway, but here in America self-transportation is nearly a necessity; most people work around a good 10-25 miles from home if they live in suburbs, a very large portion of the population. You'd only have to look at how many highways we have in the country(particularly, Southern California) to see how necessary cars are; it's not a matter of convenience for most.
But it is to many. It's also a matter of lack of public transportation caused by a lack of interest in it.

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I'm not sure if I understand your point here. Are you describing how your friend drives a car regularly, contributing to the pollution problem, and remarking on how it was that sort of activity which had worsened the storm that had killed her mother? I would remind you, then, that rainstorms and mudslides have been happening in terrible force since long before we discovered combustion.
The severity of the weather in Norway the last few years are definitely a new phenomenon, as it the heat. And, of course, so is mud-slides, which happen very rarely here.

An inconvenient truth shows a graph that goes 650 000 years back, from oxygen extracted from deep within glaciers. It does a very good job at showing how the Co2-level has been rising lately and how temperature have always been correlating to Co2-level (yes, they can measure temperatures this way, too).

The extreme weather and heat waves are not normal. Global warming is a reality, and the current "heat wave" in the "heat-ice age-heat"-cycle is far warmer and far longer than the previous ones.

An inconvenient truth is a worthwhile watch. It's not perfect (the director had the movie focus too much on Al Gore for my taste - and for that matter for Al Gore's own taste), but it's a fantastic movie. You'll be surprised by how many of his claims can be proven and how it's proven.


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Old 12-13-2006, 01:17 PM   #30
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That we need to find an alternative to burning fossil fuels should be a no-brainer. Even those who don't believe that global warming is happening have to realize that the oil isn't going to last forever. I'm afraid, however, that without some sort of political (monetary, really, because that's what it all boils down to in the end) incentive the development of an alternative energy source is not going to be pursued with any kind of zeal until all of the oil is gone or nearly gone. Mankind is just stupid that way.


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Fix their home team score on the board to the debt clock, they can win every game 17,000,000,000,000 to 24. Losing team gets taxed by the IRS 100%, then droned."
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Old 12-15-2006, 01:03 AM   #31
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What we need is to get the ignorants who don't even believe in global warming out from under their rocks.

Fair enough to be a sceptic if it means looking up evidence, opening yourself to both sides, and truly being open-minded. In other words, it's great to ask questions, find the answers, and educate yourself in the process. But to manage the work of intellectual art it is to not even believe in global warming - that is simply scandalous beyond excuse.

What I mean to say is, if I wonder about how it comes that ibn Ladin wrote with his right hand in the allegedly false confession tape following 9/11, there's a difference between actually finding the answer (he did so because writing with your left hand is forbidden in his somehow backwards culture) and simply taking it for evidence Bush was behind 9/11.

The world is spending so much money on ignorance that could've been better spent elsewhere. We're defending evolution from the Creationists; we had to fight long court battles before we were able to "kill" Terri Schiavo because all these deluded activists thought she was fully alive and able to feel pain; and now we're suffering because right-wingers simply refuse to open their minds to global warming. If you don't even believe global warming exists, or believe it's part of the natural cycle of heat periods and ice ages, then you're exceptionally skilled at hiding from exceptionally easy-to-acquire facts (Google being what it is).
- - - -
More on-topic, I managed to procure this chart, which is the one I discussed earlier. It goes 650 000 years back in time and shows temperature and Co2-levels have correlated for just that long.


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Old 12-15-2006, 01:31 AM   #32
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Originally Posted by Dagobahn Eagle
What we need is to get the ignorants who don't even believe in global warming out from under their rocks.
I highly doubt that those fools are going to wake up, Dagobahn.
I foresee in the coming decades that us in the northern hemisphere will be probably dwelling in ice caves.
I feel sorry for you up there in Norway, y'all will probably living in snow mountains.
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